COVID-19

I continue to be baffled by the desire of so many to downplay the death toll of this virus. Why is this happening? I really hate to think that many are ready to trade-off life for economic recovery, as if this were really a dichotomy. I'm not the only one who thinks that economic recovery will start only when people will feel safe. People will not feel safe as long as they don't know who is contagious, and are assured that the medical system can take care of them, with adequ ate availability and, as soon as possible, effective therapies (while we wait for the vaccine). The upshot is that prioritizing safety by opening up slowly and making sure that we don't cause new waves, is ALSO the best path to recovery. Let me stress again that we DO have to start allowing people to get out of their houses to go back to work. Clearly we cannot stay home forever.... Even that does not make the virus "go away" . It's still out there waiting for us to come out...

I just finished watching Bocelli's gift perfomance at Milan's Duomo, and I'm still wiping tears off my eyes. This was loaded with emotion for me. My city of birth. A city where most of my beloved relatives still live. A cathedral I have often been in and always inspired by, in appreciation of every person's longing for something "larger" than themselves. And here is a man, blind, unable to see the emptiness of the square in front of him (see the tiny figure in front of the Duomo), but certainly able to feel it. A beaut iful voice, singing on behalf of humanity... to hope and unity. I was suddenly struck by how this felt to me like a new "blue marble" moment, when astronauts on the moon looked up and, for the first time, saw our beautiful Earth, our home, in the sky. If there is a silver lining to this pandemic it may well be a powerful and hopefully lasting reminder of our common humanity.

 This is very good! But I don't want to be so arrogant as to say that even as scientist I have never fallen into any of these traps ... I can only say that I always try not to, and I welcome being called on it if I do!

I am not surprised that folks are confused about the apparent contradiction between "light at the end of the tunnel" and "the worst weeks are still to come", and even Dr. Fauci (with all due respect) did not do a good job explaining that... This goes together with them talking alternatively about "peaks" and about "flattening the curve". The explanation will be totally obvious to folks who have had calculus... but I will assume that that knowledge might be rusty for many at this point. What's been unclear (IMO) is that they have been talking about two different curves, and they have not bothered to explain that fact. The first curve (first picture) shows the daily number of deaths in the US. I have been showing the daily number of new cases. The shape is the same. So, what happens is that deaths (or new cases) keep increasing as the virus takes off. If measures are effective the daily number of new cases (and, later, deaths)...

It's not clear to me whether the number of deaths predicted by the models shown at the WH briefings (100-240K) refer just to "first wave" (up to the "flattening") or to the entire course of the pandemic. I suspect it's just the former. The reason is that, even without modeling sophistication, unchecked epidemics end up affecting a large % of the population.Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch, estimates it’s “plausible” that 20 to 60 percent of adults will catch the disease w ithin a year (I have seen more dire estimates). Let's make it 40%, and that's 130M. a 1% death rate would cause 1.3 Million deaths. Social distancing doesn't "kill" the virus, it just prevents it from finding new hosts. Some authorities make it sound like with "flattening" we won the battle. The reality is that it will be the start of a long battle to slowly restart the economy and social "normalcy" while at the same time preventin...

It looks like even our "authorities" are coming around on the issue of wearing face masks. I feel proud of the fact that I questioned the original pronouncements from the very start. A post from March 15 (it already feels like months ago!) describes an interaction I had had with the chief medical officer at NASA Ames. You can go check it out. The upshot, was the following for me: The N-95 masks should go to medical workers and only to medical workers until we are sure that th ey have what they need. The reason is that these masks, if worn properly, are viewed as capable of preventing inhalation of the virus, so, for front line health workers, they can mean life and death... I don't know how supply chains work, and how my ordering one (even aside from the issue of reusability) from Amazon can interfere with a health worker getting one. I really don't know, and I'd love help in understanding this. All I can say is that I am personally uneasy wearing one...