May 2: How many deaths are realated to COVID-19?
I continue to be baffled by the desire of so many to downplay the death
toll of this virus. Why is this happening? I really hate to think that
many are ready to trade-off life for economic recovery, as if this were
really a dichotomy. I'm not the only one who thinks that economic
recovery will start only when people will feel safe. People will not
feel safe as long as they don't know who is contagious, and are assured
that the medical system can take care of them, with adequate
availability and, as soon as possible, effective therapies (while we
wait for the vaccine). The upshot is that prioritizing safety by opening
up slowly and making sure that we don't cause new waves, is ALSO the
best path to recovery. Let me stress again that we DO have to start
allowing people to get out of their houses to go back to work. Clearly
we cannot stay home forever.... Even that does not make the virus "go
away" . It's still out there waiting for us to come out... but, if we
did manage to stop the spread, we are in a position, via testing,
distancing, masks, etc. to keep it "down" and medically manageable.
Still this needs to be done with extremely careful planning around the
notion that the virus will continue to be present and will continue to
infect people as long as there are available "hosts". We need to figure
out how to co-exist, by keeping the infection rate as low as possible so
we (let me repeat) can buy time to develop therapies and ultimately a
vaccine. The name of the game is to prevent death as much as reasonably
possible. It's no consolation to me that "in the scheme of things" my
own personal risk of dying is still "low". Even 3 million deaths in the
US would mean that each of us would have only a 1% chance of dying ...
(aside from age and other considerations). Would that be OK? is it OK
that 65K have already died and we'll probably double that before the
"first wave" is over? And to all the folks that insist on claiming that
other causes of death are being labeled "COVID" for some nefarious
political reasons, let me point out the same death rates have happened
everywhere else in the world both with leftists and rightist
governments. The best way to view the effect of this virus is simply to
compare current death rates with those of past times when Covid-19 was
not around. Red lines below show current rates compared with historical
death rates for all reasons. Graphs are for NYC and several other
nations (you need to click on the NYC graph to see the bottom part..
sorry). BTW, the bend of the curves downward correspond to the enactment
of stay-at-home rules and/other distancing restrictions. Without those
measures the red line would go up until most of the population is
infected and some percentage (still unclear) would die (including a high
% of medical personnel in overwhelmed medical systems).
Comments
Post a Comment