March 16: Reaching the "peak"

Here is a graph of the daily new number of coronavirus cases predicted in Italy. Note that the exponential growth continues for a few more days and finally peaks on March 18 (green is up to now - remember that the rest of the world goes day/month). This is very much like trying to predict where a hurricane will land. The difference (to pursue the analogy) is that what we do actually determines the path and strength of the hurricane! The "problem" with this is that if we manage to lessen the impact of the virus, all measures taken will be viewed as having been "overreactions", when in fact they were what made the impact less severe. The "peak", if the prediction holds, will happen because of the draconian measures taken a week or so ago. Meanwhile infections and deaths will continue to rise. The expected result is a severely strained medical system. They are now putting beds everywhere they can find space, and basically scrambling to increase medical personnel, produce and import, face-masks, respirators, etc. We here are basically still way on the left of the green part. Our curve may look a bit a different (flatter if we are lucky), but basically this is what we can expect. "if it doesn't seem like overreaction it won't be effective...". Stay safe!