March 20: After the curve is "flattened"

So, what happens after we "flatten the curve" ? Before I try to venture an answer to that let me point out a few facts. We are not going to have "one curve" for the US. It's going to look like the current European situation (see picture), with different states starting the exponential growth at different times and with different results, depending on measures taken and how soon. This basically means that while a state reaches the peak another one will just start... and this will prolong the process. So let's just assume we have reached the "flat" stage. China has already done so (as they report) and Italy is expected to get there in month and half. Two very good things can be said: 1. We know how to stop the virus from spreading , 2. Our models of how it spreads are reasonably accurate. The value of #1 is obvious, but #2 can put to rest fears of modes of spreading that are not parts of the basic modeling assumptions (like long suspension in air, contamination of food packaging etc.). Both are very important.
So what happens now? Do we leave our homes and start partying? (DISCLAIMER: while until now I could rely on data of what has been happening in Italy, now I am just relying on my logic and basic scientific knowledge).... The answer is: "not so fast"... The virus did not just vanish. We merely thwarted its ability to jump into new hosts, so if we start partying ... so will the virus, and it might well take off again.. I envision a period while we will carefully open up parts of the economy and see what happens. The problem is that whatever we do, the results will only become apparent in two or three weeks, and the temptation to open up too much too soon will be very strong. Finally having testing widely available would be a great help in managing the situation. But I fear we are in for a long haul of opening very carefully and closing .... until we finally have a vaccine, or if we are VERY lucky, this virus turns out to be seasonal like the flu, and that will give us more time until next year. We have no indication (that I know of) so far that that will be the case.

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