March 17: Reaching the "peak" - real data

An update to my previous post. First of all the information comes from the reputable Italian newspaper "Il Sole 24-ore". They get their data from gov sources. I did not find an updated "model" but I did find the actual data, which shows the model to be reasonably accurate (same say peak on 3/23 instead of 3/18... but...). Note this is a peak of NEW DAILY CASES. This means that the number of infected will continue to increase until the end of the tail of the curve. At that point we'll not be out of the woods. There will still be the very large number of infected cases, with many occupying hospital beds and ICUs now being prepped in exposition halls and wherever they find space. That number will slowly decrease as people recover or die. The good news is that we will know that the prevention measures (quarantines, distancing etc.) did work! Again, the effect of any measures shows up weeks later. If you find out that they did not work you lost weeks... which is why "overkill" is good

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