One person was found positive for the COVID-19 in a town south of Milan. Extensive testing was done immediately of all contacts, and the whole town was put in quarantine. Milan to the north remained "open" but all public events and schools were closed. Italy has universal health care. They had thousands of tests kits available, and affected people were put in the best specialized hospitals. Medical authorities have been regularly speaking to the media. Politics has been out o f the picture. Let's compare with what's happening here... We have a first case in Solano county that appears to be "community" spread. We appear to have no large scale testing (any testing?). The Bay Area seems oblivious to the potential seriousness of the problem. How many "insured" folks will go to less capable hospitals because of the restrictions of their insurance companies. How many uninsured folks will not seek care or testing (when finally available) beca...
Italy was viewed for a while as an example NOT to follow... quite the contrary! Yes, I’m biased, as that’s my native country, but the facts of Italy’s behavior, both at the level of government and people, during this pandemic cannot be denied. This article explains very well what has been happening as Italy is starting its own (deliberately slow) path to opening up. As Italians move toward a less stringent regimen to minimize their exposure to the coronavirus, they can take pride in an unusual collective effort. nytimes.com Opinion | How Italy Coped, and Will Keep Coping As Italians move toward a less stringent regimen to minimize their… As Italians move toward a less stringent regimen to minimize their exposure to the coronavirus, they can take pride in an unusual collective effort.
The problem with epidemics is that our brains were not "wired" for exponential mathematics. There is a story about an ancient king who was bargaining with a merchant about a payment in the form of rice. Finally the merchant asked for a chess board. He said: "all I want is a grain of rice on the first square, 2 on the second square, 4 on the third ...and so on, doubling the amount on each square." "That's all?" Said the king... "granted!" Unfortunately for him it turned out t hat there was not enough rice in the entire kingdom to pay the merchant! So what's the lesson? The lesson is that if every infected person infects 2 you have the same mathematics... and the time to stop the process is when the numbers are still so small that the problem is not yet obvious, So effective action will always seem premature and alarmistic. Any action needs to be proportional NOT to the present numbers but the numbers to be expected in a wee...
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