Italy was viewed for a while as an example NOT to follow... quite the contrary! Yes, I’m biased, as that’s my native country, but the facts of Italy’s behavior, both at the level of government and people, during this pandemic cannot be denied. This article explains very well what has been happening as Italy is starting its own (deliberately slow) path to opening up. As Italians move toward a less stringent regimen to minimize their exposure to the coronavirus, they can take pride in an unusual collective effort. nytimes.com Opinion | How Italy Coped, and Will Keep Coping As Italians move toward a less stringent regimen to minimize their… As Italians move toward a less stringent regimen to minimize their exposure to the coronavirus, they can take pride in an unusual collective effort.
I am not surprised that folks are confused about the apparent contradiction between "light at the end of the tunnel" and "the worst weeks are still to come", and even Dr. Fauci (with all due respect) did not do a good job explaining that... This goes together with them talking alternatively about "peaks" and about "flattening the curve". The explanation will be totally obvious to folks who have had calculus... but I will assume that that knowledge might be rusty for many at this point. What's been unclear (IMO) is that they have been talking about two different curves, and they have not bothered to explain that fact. The first curve (first picture) shows the daily number of deaths in the US. I have been showing the daily number of new cases. The shape is the same. So, what happens is that deaths (or new cases) keep increasing as the virus takes off. If measures are effective the daily number of new cases (and, later, deaths)...
This is very good! But I don't want to be so arrogant as to say that even as scientist I have never fallen into any of these traps ... I can only say that I always try not to, and I welcome being called on it if I do!
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