March 16: exhausted health workers

photos from a system (Italy) that is struggling to keep up: exhaustion and sore face from wearing a protective mask...

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March 19: A probability game.

Contagion is a probability "game", and, unfortunately, just as is the case for exponential growth phenomena, people have a hard time wrapping their brains around probability effects. Each type of virus has its one favorite mode of transmission. That is the mode in which you are most likely to be affected. For instance Measles can easily stay airborne and each case typically infects 12 to 18 others if unchecked. The number is about six for polio, smallpox, and rubella, and, f ortunately, only two to three for COVID-19. The 2-3 number says something about how it is likely to be transmitted. Earlier this month, CDC reported that the rate of symptomatic infection among a patient’s household members was 10.5%. The rate among other close contacts was 0.45%. This is consistent with the "droplet spread" mode of transmission rather than the airborne transmission of Measles. Which, again, doesn't mean that there might not been some virus "in the air...
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March 20: Light at the end of the tunnel?

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So far I've mostly tried to bring recognition and understanding for the severity of the problem we are facing. The reason is for us to be ready for, and accepting of, even the most drastic measures that will be taken. Today I'd like to speak to what the "light at the end of the tunnel" will look like ... assuming you'll want to think of it that way. I'm sure you have heard about the fact that the number of deaths in Italy has surpassed those of China. That's of course becaus e the number of cases continues to increase. What is less obvious, unless you look at appropriate graphs is that the daily rate of new cases (as % of the total) has been decreasing; and they are waiting (..and hoping) to start seeing the effect of the "national lockdown" enacted about a week ago. Look at the first graph. It shows the daily % of increase from the start. Note that it started around 25% and higher spikes... It is now down to around 15%. I's no...
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I continue to be baffled by the desire of so many to downplay the death toll of this virus. Why is this happening? I really hate to think that many are ready to trade-off life for economic recovery, as if this were really a dichotomy. I'm not the only one who thinks that economic recovery will start only when people will feel safe. People will not feel safe as long as they don't know who is contagious, and are assured that the medical system can take care of them, with adequ ate availability and, as soon as possible, effective therapies (while we wait for the vaccine). The upshot is that prioritizing safety by opening up slowly and making sure that we don't cause new waves, is ALSO the best path to recovery. Let me stress again that we DO have to start allowing people to get out of their houses to go back to work. Clearly we cannot stay home forever.... Even that does not make the virus "go away" . It's still out there waiting for us to come out...
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