March 12: Health care system capacity
The graph below has been around, but I want to put it up again, because
it really explains well the most important issue we are dealing with,
and that is the capacity of our medical system. I have posted about the
problem of grasping the effect of exponential growth and I have posted
how that has already affected Italy, and I how we expect the same to
happen here. The question I want address now is: when does the
exponential growth stop and how?
The growth stops when there are no more bodies left that can be infected. That can be because most people have already been infected and have acquired immunity or new possible "hosts" have become unreachable (possibly because they are staying home...or 6 feet away from infected folks). This "flattens" the curve, and, as the virus runs out of new hosts the curve goes back down. So where are we on the curve? We are on the left bottom side and we have a choice. Without adequate measure we'll go up the red curve, with adequate measures we can manage to go up the blue one. The difference is that as people become infected, about 20% require medical care and the red curve shows that a medical system can become overwhelmed. Italy seems to have just crossed that line. Doctors have been given instructions to triage. Weaker people are simply allowed to die. We are on the same kind of curve and are bound to have the same problem. My medical professional friends are already showing strain, and complain of lack of protective equipment. If we adopt measures that reduce the spread (staying home and social distancing etc.) we can land on the blue curve ... or at least somewhere in between. We could also raise the Healthcare System Capacity line! But for that we need a government that will start producing the needed medical equipment, such as protective gear, ICU units, respirators etc. --- When we entered world war two we started building tanks like crazy --- This is also a war... and possibly even more lives are on the line. Whether you are a Dem or Rep CALL CONGRESS (btw, the colors of the curves have nothing to do with the parties... pure coincidence).
The growth stops when there are no more bodies left that can be infected. That can be because most people have already been infected and have acquired immunity or new possible "hosts" have become unreachable (possibly because they are staying home...or 6 feet away from infected folks). This "flattens" the curve, and, as the virus runs out of new hosts the curve goes back down. So where are we on the curve? We are on the left bottom side and we have a choice. Without adequate measure we'll go up the red curve, with adequate measures we can manage to go up the blue one. The difference is that as people become infected, about 20% require medical care and the red curve shows that a medical system can become overwhelmed. Italy seems to have just crossed that line. Doctors have been given instructions to triage. Weaker people are simply allowed to die. We are on the same kind of curve and are bound to have the same problem. My medical professional friends are already showing strain, and complain of lack of protective equipment. If we adopt measures that reduce the spread (staying home and social distancing etc.) we can land on the blue curve ... or at least somewhere in between. We could also raise the Healthcare System Capacity line! But for that we need a government that will start producing the needed medical equipment, such as protective gear, ICU units, respirators etc. --- When we entered world war two we started building tanks like crazy --- This is also a war... and possibly even more lives are on the line. Whether you are a Dem or Rep CALL CONGRESS (btw, the colors of the curves have nothing to do with the parties... pure coincidence).
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